'Kamoshirenai' vs. 'Deshō': Gauging a Native's Degree of Confidence
Expressing probability is a key part of any language. In Japanese, two of the most common ways to say "probably" or "maybe" are 〜かもしれません (-kamoshiremasen) and 〜でしょう (-deshō). While both express uncertainty, they imply different levels of confidence.
Is the speaker making a wild guess, or are they making a well-informed prediction? Understanding the nuance between the low certainty of -kamoshirenai and the higher certainty of -deshō will help you better understand the speaker's true feelings and express your own level of confidence accurately.
1. 〜かもしれません (-kamoshiremasen): Low Certainty ("Maybe," "Might")
かもしれません (kamoshiremasen), and its plain form かもしれない (kamoshirenai), expresses a simple possibility. The level of certainty is quite low, often around 50% or less. It's the equivalent of saying "maybe," "it's possible that," or "might." There isn't necessarily strong evidence for the guess; it's just one of several possibilities.
Rule: Plain Form + かもしれない
Example 1: A simple possibility
明日は雨が降るかもしれません。
(Ashita wa ame ga furu kamoshiremasen.)
"It might rain tomorrow." (It's a possibility, but I'm not very sure).
Example 2: A guess about someone's feelings
田中さんはパーティーに来ないかもしれない。
(Tanaka-san wa pātī ni konai kamoshirenai.)
"Mr. Tanaka might not come to the party." (I have no real evidence, it's just a guess).
2. 〜でしょう (-deshō): Higher Certainty ("Probably," "I bet")
〜でしょう (-deshō), and its plain form 〜だろう (-darō), expresses a higher level of certainty. The speaker has some evidence or reason to believe their prediction is true. The confidence level is usually above 70%. It's the equivalent of "probably," "I bet," or "it's likely that."
Rule: Plain Form + でしょう
Example 1: An informed guess
明日は雨が降るでしょう。
(Ashita wa ame ga furu deshō.)
"It will probably rain tomorrow." (The weather forecast said 80% chance of rain).
Example 2: A likely outcome
彼はきっと試験に合格するだろう。
(Kare wa kitto shiken ni gōkaku suru darō.)
"He will probably pass the exam for sure." (He has been studying very hard).
Confidence Scale
You can think of these phrases on a scale of certainty, also including hazu which we learned about separately.
〜かもしれない
(Maybe, ~50%)
〜でしょう
(Probably, ~70-80%)
〜はずです
(Should be, >90%)
Conclusion
Choosing between kamoshirenai and deshō all comes down to how confident you are. If you're just floating a possibility or making a pure guess, use kamoshirenai. If you have some evidence and feel pretty sure about your prediction, use deshō.
Listening for these cues from native speakers will give you a much deeper understanding of how certain they are about what they're saying.